Changing Global Patterns of Enrolment in Doctoral Education
Stan Taylor
Introduction
Since the turn of the century, UNESCO has been collecting country-based official data on doctoral enrolments. These data are fairly incomplete for the earlier years without, for example, figures for major providers of doctoral education such as China, Germany, and the United States. But since 2014 they have become much more comprehensive in their coverage of global patterns. The purpose of the present blog is to compare these patterns over the period ca. 2014 to ca. 2023 with a view to discerning changes in 1) the overall numbers of doctoral candidates enrolled 2) their distribution across the regions of the world 3) their distribution between countries.
Methods
Doctoral level studies are internationally (OECD/Eurostat/UNESCO Institute for Statistics 2015 : 97) defined as programmes classified as Level 8 of the International Standards of Classification of Education (ISCED) which:
…are designed primarily to lead to an advanced research qualification. Programmes at this ISCED level are devoted to advanced study and original research and are typically offered only by research-oriented tertiary educational institutions such as universities. Doctoral programmes exist in both academic and professional fields.
On its website for ISCED 8 statistics, UNESCO (2026a) lists 167 cases, including 164 countries and three dependencies, namely Hong Kong and Macau (China) and Puerto Rico (the United States). The 164 countries listed were 31 short of the total of 195 that are formally recognised by the United Nations. However, those where there was no data consisted disproportionately of small countries located in Central and South America, Oceania, and Sub-Sarahan Africa. These exclusions probably involve relatively few doctoral enrolments, but they mean that the UNESCO statistics will be an underestimate of the total.
For the 167 cases listed, information in the UNESCO dataset is arrayed from 2000-2024, but for the period up to 2014 there is a substantial amount of missing data. This includes data on some of the major players including China (first listed 2013) and the United States (2014). It is only from the latter date that there is more comprehensive coverage of the numbers of doctoral enrolments, but there are still a number of gaps in availability.
The present blog seeks to compare the patterns of doctoral enrolment ca. 2014 and again ca. 2023. For 2014, data was available for 116 cases, but in a further nine there were data for a year either side, i.e. 2013 or 2015. In these cases, which included some large players such as Algeria, Morocco, and Portugal, numbers from these adjacent years were included, yielding a total of 125 cases. For 2023, data were available for 107 cases, but in a further 14 there were data available for a year either side, 2022 or 2024. Again, this included some large players, particularly Iran and Saudi Arabia, and these were included to yield 121 cases. These patterns gave aggregates for 2014 and 2023, but in order to control for the impact differences in the numbers between the two periods, cases had to be identified where data were available for both periods. This yielded, in all, a dataset of 110 cases. It may be noted that these covered
99.5% of all doctoral enrolments recorded ca. 2014 and 99.8% of those recorded ca. 2023, i.e. they included the vast majority of enrolments in both periods.
As well as looking at the overall patterns of doctoral enrolment, these were disaggregated on a regional basis. The United Nations classifies countries into the six regions of Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America, North America, and Oceania. This results in some counter-intuitive allocations, for example Georgia, Israel and Jordan being placed in Asia, and it was felt preferable to adapt a more fine-grained classification. Instead, the allocation was on the basis of the regions identified by Rosenberg (2017) of 1) Asia 2) Central and South America 3) Eastern Europe and Russia 4) The Middle East. Arabia and North Africa 5) North America 6) Oceania 7) Sub-Saharan Africa and 8) Western Europe.
Overall numbers enrolled in doctoral programmes
For the 110 cases where data were available for both periods, in ca. 2014 2,714,751 enrolments were reported, while in ca. 2023 the total was 3,768,642, an increase of 39%. That noted, as UNESCO (2026b: 32) have pointed out, the figure approaching 3.8 million enrolments ca. 2023 represented only 1.8% of total global enrolments in higher education, which in part may account for the relative invisibility to policy-makers of doctoral as compared to other levels of education (Deem, 2022).
Regional distribution of doctoral enrolments
The distribution between regions among the 110 cases is set out below.
Table 1 – Regional distribution of doctoral enrolments (N=110)
| Region | ca. 2014 (%) | ca. 2023 (%) | Difference | N |
| Asia | 26.7 | 33.9 | 7.2 | 23 |
| Central and South America | 4.9 | 4.7 | -0.2 | 10 |
| Eastern Europe and Russia | 11.8 | 9.7 | -2.1 | 21 |
| Middle East and North Africa | 11.6 | 14.2 | 2.6 | 15 |
| North America | 17.4 | 13.8 | -3.6 | 3 |
| Oceania | 2.4 | 1.7 | -0.7 | 2 |
| Sub-Saharan Africa | 1.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 15 |
| Western Europe | 23.7 | 20.0 | -3.7 | 21 |
| Total | 99.9 | 100.0 |
These data clearly show that Asia gained a much higher share of global doctoral enrolments between the two periods, and that there were also increased shares in the Middle East and North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa; elsewhere, relative shares fell, particularly in North America, Western Europe, and Eastern Europe and Russia.
Country distribution of doctoral enrolments
With regard to countries, the table below sets out detailed data for the top 40 doctoral enrollers (which accounted for over 90% of enrolments in both periods) and a sum for the remainder.
Table 2 – Total doctoral enrolments by countries
| Countries | Ca. 2014 (% of global enrolments) | Ca.2023 (% of global enrolments) | Change |
| United States | 14.5 | 10.5 | -4.0 |
| China | 11.3 | 15.5 | 4.2 |
| Germany | 7.9 | 5.4 | -2.5 |
| Russia | 5.0 | 5.2 | 0.1 |
| United Kingdom | 4.1 | 3.3 | -0.8 |
| India | 4.1 | 6.2 | 2.1 |
| Brazil | 3.5 | 3.5 | 0.0 |
| Japan | 2.7 | 2.1 | -0.6 |
| Iran | 2.7 | 4.0 | 1.3 |
| S. Korea | 2.6 | 2.3 | -0.3 |
| France | 2.5 | 1.8 | -0.7 |
| Türkiye | 2.5 | 4.2 | 1.7 |
| Algeria | 2.5 | 1.8 | -0.7 |
| Australia | 2.1 | 1.5 | -0.6 |
| Canada | 1.9 | 1.7 | -0.2 |
| Egypt | 1.7 | 1.2 | -0.5 |
| Poland | 1.6 | 0.6 | -1.0 |
| Malaysia | 1.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 |
| Ukraine | 1.3 | 0.9 | -0.4 |
| Italy | 1.2 | 1.1 | -0.1 |
| Mexico | 1.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| Thailand | 0.9 | 0.8 | -0.1 |
| Czech Republic | 0.9 | 0.5 | -0.4 |
| Austria | 0.9 | 0.5 | -0.4 |
| Spain | 0.9 | 2.6 | 1.7 |
| Argentina | 0.9 | 0.7 | -0.2 |
| Pakistan | 0.9 | 0.7 | -0.2 |
| Greece | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| Switzerland | 0.9 | 0.7 | -0.2 |
| Morocco | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| Philippines | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| Sweden | 0.8 | 0.5 | -0.3 |
| Indonesia | 0.8 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| Finland | 0.7 | 0.5 | -0.2 |
| Romania | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| Portugal | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| South Africa | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| Belgium | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| Netherlands | 0.5 | 0.4 | -0.1 |
| Tunisia | 0.4 | 0.3 | -0.1 |
| Other (N=70) | 7.3 | 8.4 | -1.1 |
| Total | 100.0 | 100.0 |
It can be seen from the above that the increase in the share of enrolments in Asia was largely driven by four countries, China, India, Indonesia, and Malaysia, which far more than compensated for reductions in Japan and Pakistan. Similarly, the increased share of the Middle East and North Africa was largely driven by expansion in Türkiye and Iran, while the shares in Egypt and Tunisia fell. In Western Europe, the shares of enrolments increased in the southern countries of Greece, Portugal and Spain, but declined in the northern ones including Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. In Eastern Europe and Russia, apart from the latter the dominant pattern was decline, particularly in the Czech Republic, Poland, and the Ukraine. In North America, the share ccruing to Mexico increased while that of Canada remained constant, but there was a significant decline in that of the United States. Of the two countries in Central and South America, Brazil and Argentina, there was relative consistency of shares between the two periods. There was only one country from Sub-Saharan Africa among the top 40, South Africa, which had a consistent share of enrolments.
The impact of these changes can be seen directly in the rankings of countries in terms of shares of doctoral enrolment, as indicated below.
Table 3 – Rankings of countries by share of doctoral enrolments
| Country | Ranking 2014 | Ranking 2023 | Change |
| United States | 1 | 2 | -1 |
| China | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Germany | 3 | 4 | -1 |
| Russia | 4 | 5 | -1 |
| United Kingdom | 5 | 9 | -4 |
| India | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| Brazil | 7 | 8 | -1 |
| Japan | 8 | 12 | -4 |
| Iran | 9 | 7 | 2 |
| S. Korea | 10 | 11 | -1 |
| France | 11 | 13 | -2 |
| Türkiye | 12 | 6 | 6 |
| Algeria | 13 | 14 | 1 |
| Australia | 14 | 19 | -5 |
| Canada | 15 | 15 | 0 |
| Egypt | 16 | 20 | -4 |
| Poland | 17 | 33 | -16 |
| Malaysia | 18 | 16 | 2 |
| Ukraine | 19 | 24 | -5 |
| Italy | 20 | 22 | -2 |
| Mexico | 21 | 17 | 4 |
| Thailand | 22 | 26 | -4 |
| Czech Republic | 23 | 35 | -12 |
| Austria | 24 | 36 | -12 |
| Spain | 25 | 10 | 15 |
| Argentina | 26 | 27 | -1 |
| Pakistan | 27 | 28 | -1 |
| Greece | 28 | 25 | 3 |
| Switzerland | 29 | 29 | 0 |
| Morocco | 30 | 21 | 9 |
| Philippines | 31 | 23 | 8 |
| Sweden | 32 | 37 | -5 |
| Indonesia | 33 | 18 | 15 |
| Finland | 34 | 38 | -4 |
| Romania | 35 | 34 | 1 |
| Portugal | 36 | 30 | 6 |
| South Africa | 37 | 31 | 6 |
| Belgium | 38 | 39 | -1 |
| Netherlands | 39 | 40 | -1 |
| Tunisia | 40 | 42 | -2 |
Among those climbing the rankings were China (1st from 2nd place), India (3rd from 6th), Türkiye (6th from 12th), Iran (7th from 9th), Spain (10th from 25th), Indonesia (18th from 33rd), Morocco (21st from 30th), and the Philippines (23rd from 31st); among those declining were the United States (2nd from 1st), the United Kingdom (9th from 5th), Japan (12th from 8th), Australia (19th from 14th), Poland (33rd from 17th), the Czech Republic (35th from 23rd), Austria (36th from 24th), Sweden (37th from 32nd), and Finland (38th from 34th).
Conclusions
Overall, there was a significant increase in the global number of doctoral enrolments between ca. 2014 and ca. 2023 from 2.73 million to 3.77 million, an increase of around two-fifths. This was heavily concentrated in two regions, Asia and the Middle East and North Africa. By comparison, rates of increase were much lower in other regions, with the consequence that their overall shares of the total were static or declining.
At the country level, these changes were driven by the rapid expansion of doctoral education in China, India, Malaysia, and Indonesia in Asia and Türkiye and Iran in North Africa and the Middle East while, with a few exceptions, expansion was slower or non-existent in most other countries.
The net result is that, from an historical position where a majority of doctoral enrolments were in the Northern Hemisphere rather than the Southern one, this has now gone into reverse; in ca. 2014, 53% of doctoral enrolments were in the former, but by ca. 2023 56.5% were in the latter.
Assuming that these trends continue, it would seem that the future of doctoral enrolment will lie far more in the Southern Hemisphere, particularly in Asia and the Middle East and North Africa, rather than its traditional base in North America and Western Europe.
References
Deem, R. (2022) On doctoral (in)visibility and reframing the doctorate for the twenty-first century. European Journal of Higher Education. DOI 10.1080/21568235.2022.2105370.
Rosemberg, M. (2019) Official Listing of Countries by World Region.
https://www.thoughtco.com/official-listing-of-countries-world-region-1435153
OECD/Eurostat/UNESCO Institute for Statistics (2015), “ISCED 2011 Level 8: Doctoral or equivalent level”, in ISCED 2011 Operational Manual: Guidelines for Classifying National Education Programmes and Related Qualifications, OECD Publishing, Paris.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264228368-13-en
UNESCO (2026a) Enrolment in tertiary education, ISCED 8 programes, both sexes (number).
https://databrowser.uis.unesco.org/browser/EDUCATION/UIS-EducationOPRI/enrol- att/enrolment?highlightId=25052&highlightGroupId=IG-ENROL
UNESCO (2026b) Higher education global trends report: Towards inclusive, equitable and quality higher education in an internationally mobile landscape.
https://unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000398121